债市 逆风环境与修复动能并存

Group 1 - The bond market is facing headwinds due to increased market risk appetite and institutional behavior, with the 10-year and 30-year government bond yields rising to 1.83% and 2.11% respectively [1] - The 10-year government bond yield is expected to face significant upward resistance in the 1.80%-1.85% range, supported by increased market allocation and expectations of central bank operations [3][7] - Demand pressures remain, with weak financing needs and a reasonable liquidity environment providing support for the bond market [3][5] Group 2 - Recent macroeconomic data shows a slow transmission of policy expectations to the macroeconomic fundamentals, with inflation levels at a low point and a slight decline in the year-on-year growth rate of social financing [4][5] - The core CPI has expanded for four consecutive months, indicating that price levels are still at a bottoming stage, while PPI's decline has narrowed, supported by industrial price increases [4] - The central bank's stance on maintaining liquidity remains unchanged, with significant reverse repo operations indicating a continued loose monetary policy to support economic recovery [5][6] Group 3 - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to improve supply-demand relationships and support PPI stabilization, although the pace of recovery is anticipated to be slow [4][6] - The bond market's pricing is primarily influenced by market risk appetite and institutional behavior, with concerns over bond fund redemptions persisting [7] - The overall trend in the bond yield curve is expected to remain steep, reflecting the ongoing challenges in the bond market despite potential short-term recovery [7]