【华西策略】9月慢牛行情主线有哪些？高景气赛道仍是首选——华西策略周报

Core Viewpoint - The global stock indices mostly rose this week, with the Asia-Pacific market leading the gains, particularly the Hong Kong Hang Seng Technology Index which surged by 5.3%. The A-share market exhibited a V-shaped trend, with significant trading volume fluctuations, indicating a recovery in investor risk appetite and continued net buying of financing funds [1] Market Overview - The A-share "slow bull" market continues in September, with high-growth sectors being the preferred choice. The consensus in the market is that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates in September, and the progress of Sino-U.S. negotiations will be a key factor influencing global risk appetite. The current bull market in A-shares is supported by strong policies aimed at stabilizing the stock market and abundant potential incremental funds from residents [1][2] Key Focus Areas 1. U.S. Economic Indicators: The U.S. August CPI rose by 2.9% year-on-year, and the core CPI increased by 3.1%, aligning with expectations. The PPI rose by 2.6% year-on-year but fell by 0.1% month-on-month, marking the first decline in four months. The U.S. added fewer non-farm jobs than expected in August, with an increasing unemployment rate, indicating a slowdown in the job market. The market anticipates three rate cuts by the Fed this year, each by 25 basis points [1][2] 2. Sino-U.S. Negotiations: Scheduled talks from September 14 to 17 in Spain will address U.S. tariffs, export controls, and other trade issues. The outcomes of these discussions are expected to significantly impact global risk appetite [2] 3. AI Industry Developments: Major tech companies have committed to increasing investments in AI, with Oracle and OpenAI announcing a large-scale partnership. This has positively influenced stock prices in the AI sector, suggesting a resurgence in technology stocks. A-share investors should focus on opportunities in the AI sector, particularly in computing power and downstream applications [2][3] Earnings Expectations - The overall revenue for A-shares (excluding financials and oil) is projected to grow by 0.46% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, while net profit is expected to increase by 2.43%, indicating a bottoming phase for A-share earnings. High-growth sectors such as TMT, manufacturing, and pharmaceuticals are expected to maintain strong performance [3] Sector Allocation - The focus should be on high-growth sectors that are likely to benefit from valuation premiums during the bull market, including solid-state batteries, energy storage, innovative pharmaceuticals, AI applications, and humanoid robots. New consumption areas like IP economy and heated tobacco products are also highlighted. Additionally, the Hong Kong market may benefit from foreign investment and capital inflows due to the Fed's rate cuts [3]