美联储决议前瞻：重启降息箭在弦上

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to restart the interest rate cut process due to alarming signals from the U.S. job market, with significant attention on future easing paths amid internal pressures and the unclear impact of Trump's trade policies [2][3]. Economic Outlook Changes - Since August, both inflation and employment have been under pressure, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising 2.9% year-on-year in August, the highest increase since January, and core CPI at 3.1%, significantly above the Fed's 2% target [3]. - Initial jobless claims reached their highest level since 2021, indicating delays in job placements, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.3% [3]. - The IMF noted signs of pressure on the U.S. economy, including slowing domestic demand and decelerating job growth, with potential inflation risks stemming from tariffs imposed by the Trump administration [3][4]. Policy Outlook - The FOMC is expected to reassess its economic and federal funds rate outlook, with Wall Street anticipating a slight downward adjustment in the 2025 economic growth forecast and a stable inflation prediction [4]. - Wells Fargo predicts a reduction in the median interest rate forecast for 2025 from a 50 basis point cut to a 75 basis point cut, with a further reduction for 2026 [5]. - The updated "dot plot" will help determine whether the FOMC members favor "quarterly cuts" or "continuous cuts," with a terminal policy rate expected to be between 3.00%-3.25% by the end of 2026 [5]. Interest Rate Expectations - The market widely anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut, lowering the federal funds rate to a range of 4.00%-4.25% [6]. - There are indications of potential dissent within the Fed, with some members concerned about rising inflation while others focus on preventing a possible recession [6]. - The futures market shows an 80% probability of a rate cut in October, with expectations for cuts in September, October, and December [6][7]. Future Rate Cut Signals - Analysts suggest that Powell may signal three rate cuts of 25 basis points each in September, October, and December to mitigate risks in the job market [7]. - However, there remains uncertainty regarding future policy directions, which will depend on upcoming inflation and employment data [7].