社零数据涨了，但为什么感到生意更难做了？

Core Insights - The cosmetics retail sector has experienced significant fluctuations in monthly sales due to macroeconomic weakness and intensified industry competition, with June marking the first negative growth of the year during the 618 shopping festival [1] - Despite a reported recovery in July and August, the actual market sentiment among industry professionals remains pessimistic, indicating a disconnect between statistical data and real-world experiences [6][12] Retail Performance Data - In August, the cosmetics retail sales reached 34.9 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 5.1%, while the cumulative sales from January to August totaled 291.5 billion yuan, with a growth of 3.3% [3][5] - The overall retail sales of consumer goods in August amounted to 396.68 billion yuan, reflecting a 3.4% year-on-year increase, with non-automotive consumer goods retail sales growing by 3.7% [5] Market Dynamics - The growth in cosmetics retail sales is primarily driven by larger retail enterprises, as smaller businesses and brands are struggling to survive amid economic downturns and increased competition [12][14] - The disparity between reported growth and the experiences of smaller players highlights the challenges faced by non-scale businesses, which are not adequately represented in national statistics [11][12] Industry Challenges - The cosmetics industry is undergoing a transition from a high-growth phase to a period of slower growth and intensified competition, with many small and innovative brands facing significant operational challenges [13][14] - A total of 64 bankruptcy cases related to cosmetics companies have been reported, indicating a troubling trend for the industry, particularly among smaller firms [14][16] Consumer Behavior - The average price of cosmetic products has decreased, with a notable decline in gross margins for brands like 毛戈平, attributed to consumer downgrading and a deteriorating economic environment [23] - A significant portion of consumers (72%) express concerns over rising daily costs, indicating that pricing remains a critical issue for both consumers and brands [23]