Core Viewpoint - The prices of coking coal and coke have surged over 4% due to multiple factors, including production halts in coal mines and rising expectations of reduced competition in the market [1] Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - A coal mine in Shanxi Province has halted production since September 14, with an annual capacity of 1.2 million tons and a normal daily output of approximately 3,000 tons [1] - The recovery in iron and steel production, along with pre-holiday inventory replenishment expectations, is expected to lead to weaker coking coal supply compared to the same period last year [1] - As of early September, the operating rate of coking enterprises reached 75.92%, the highest level this year, with daily iron output recovering to over 2.4 million tons [1][2] Group 2: Market Conditions - Despite a traditional peak season for steel demand, the overall demand remains weak, with apparent consumption of the five major steel products at 8.43 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 459,400 tons [2] - Steel mills are experiencing compressed profits due to high production and low demand, with current profits for long-process rebar and hot-rolled coils near breakeven [2] - Coking enterprises have seen a continuous decline in inventory over the past five weeks, totaling a decrease of 1.1981 million tons since early August [2][3] Group 3: Future Price Outlook - Although coking coal demand may not see significant growth, there is no need for pessimism regarding fourth-quarter prices, as supply reduction policies may be introduced [4] - The price ratio between coking coal and thermal coal is currently low, and a new round of inventory replenishment for thermal coal is expected after mid-October, which could support coking coal prices [4] - Anticipated macroeconomic benefits, including a new round of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the release of the "14th Five-Year Plan," may further support coking coal prices in the fourth quarter [4]
利好预期支撑 双焦大幅上涨
Qi Huo Ri Bao·2025-09-16 00:42