大有期货：远月卷螺价差或有收敛机会

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in the hot-rolled coil and rebar price spread (referred to as the "coil-rebar spread") is attributed to various factors, with the fundamental pressure on rebar being the primary reason for the widening spread [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - As of September 12, the coil-rebar spread for the 2510 contract reached 360 CNY/ton, and for the 2601 contract, it was 237 CNY/ton, both hitting historical highs for the same period [1] - The coil-rebar spread has increased by 175 CNY/ton and 101 CNY/ton respectively since July 31 [1] - Rebar production has been under pressure due to a significant drop in prices following the switch to new national standards last August, leading to a decrease in production amid steel mills' losses [1] Group 2: Inventory and Delivery Pressure - The increase in rebar inventory has been notable, with total inventory rising by 19.69% since early August, while hot-rolled coil inventory only increased by 7.29% [1] - In major delivery regions, rebar social inventory reached 1.3522 million tons, a historical high, while hot-rolled coil inventory stood at 330,100 tons, remaining low compared to the past five years [2] - The number of rebar warehouse receipts reached 252,200 tons, the highest since its listing, while hot-rolled coil receipts were at 58,800 tons, also low compared to historical levels [2] Group 3: Future Outlook and Arbitrage Opportunities - The 2601 contract's price spread is less affected by delivery pressures due to the distance from the delivery month, suggesting that arbitrage activities may influence its strength [3] - The potential for narrowing the 2510 contract spread is limited due to ongoing delivery pressures, while the 2601 contract's future movements will depend on rebar production adjustments and demand improvements in the second half of the year [3] - The production of major home appliances has seen a year-on-year decline of 7.2% in September, indicating potential weakness in hot-rolled coil demand moving forward [3]