期货看“五”评 | 乙二醇：强现实弱预期，走势震荡偏弱

Group 1 - Recent low port inventory of ethylene glycol (EG) has led to a strong basis overall, with domestic EG load increasing while maintaining low port inventory levels [2] - The strong reality in the market is contrasted by weak expectations, as high overseas operating rates and anticipated increases in port arrivals are expected to weaken the market balance in Q4 [4] - The polyester industry is entering a peak season, but the degree of improvement is weaker than expected, with high operating rates and good inventory and profit conditions, yet weak terminal performance suppresses raw material valuations [12] Group 2 - New production capacities are being added, including 30,000 tons from Sinochem in Inner Mongolia and 80,000 tons from Yulong Petrochemical in Shandong, expected to come online in 2024 and 2025 respectively [10] - The market is at a turning point in supply-demand structure, with previous strong conditions unlikely to break through pre-trade conflict price levels, suggesting a potential decline in valuations [12] - Recommendations suggest a strategy of shorting on highs while being cautious of the extent to which weak expectations may not materialize, as well as the risk of a shift in market sentiment towards bullishness [12]