横盘迷雾下的价值火山：维昇药业-B（2561.HK）正站在价值重构临界点

Core Viewpoint - The stock price of Weisheng Pharmaceutical has been stagnant since its listing on the Hong Kong stock market, reflecting a typical scenario of valuation logic in the innovative drug industry and short-term market dynamics [1][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Weisheng Pharmaceutical's core product, Longpei growth hormone, is in the final stage of approval, with commercial potential yet to be realized, leading to a lack of patience from short-term investors [1] - The total trading volume since the IPO is approximately 700 million HKD, with a turnover rate of about 11%, indicating that new investors are currently inactive after the initial trading [1][2] - The upcoming expiration of the first lock-up period for new shares is creating a temporary stalemate between bullish and bearish forces in the market [3] Group 2: Clinical and Commercial Potential - Longpei growth hormone is the only long-acting growth hormone clinically proven to outperform daily formulations, with its approval process nearing completion, which is seen as a significant breakthrough [6][8] - The product has demonstrated substantial commercial potential in overseas markets, with sales reaching 202 million euros and capturing 45% of the long-acting segment in the U.S. market [8] - The Chinese market presents a favorable environment for Longpei growth hormone, with a projected market size of 21.1 billion CNY by 2030, where capturing just one-third of the market could yield sales of 7 billion CNY [9] Group 3: Valuation Logic - The valuation of innovative drug companies typically follows a dynamic assessment framework based on clinical stage progression and the scarcity of indications, with late-stage assets commanding a premium [11][12] - Weisheng Pharmaceutical's pipeline is at a critical value release point, with major institutions projecting target prices between 80-82 HKD, reflecting a rational expectation of the product's market entry [12][13] - The company’s other two core pipelines also hold significant value, with unique treatments for rare diseases that are expected to enhance the overall valuation [14] Group 4: Investment Outlook - The current divergence between short-term market sentiment and the company's intrinsic value presents an opportunity for value investors to identify certainty in the market [15] - As the year-end approaches, Weisheng Pharmaceutical is set to benefit from multiple positive factors, including product approval and capacity release, transitioning from a "story-driven" phase to one focused on "performance verification" [15]