地方专项债或撬动8700亿增量，重塑楼市供求生态

Core Insights - The central government emphasizes high-quality urban development to stabilize the real estate market, with multiple ministries actively implementing city work meeting spirits through special bonds to promote urban renewal, land recovery, and affordable housing construction [1][3]. Special Bonds and Real Estate Market - A significant amount of land recovery plans remains to be implemented, with special bond issuance expected to accelerate in the second half of the year. In the first seven months, land recovery bonds planned at 494.2 billion yuan, but only 263.9 billion yuan were issued, with less than 70 billion yuan explicitly for land recovery [1][9]. - The proportion of special bonds directed towards real estate is increasing, with land recovery and urban renewal working together to stabilize the market. Special bonds are stabilizing the market by optimizing inventory structure and providing more certain residential land investment opportunities [1][12]. - Special bonds are expected to drive 870 billion yuan in new home transactions, accounting for approximately 9% of the total transaction volume in 2024, thereby reinforcing market stability [2][17]. Regional Distribution and City Performance - Over 40% of real estate special bond funds are directed towards the East China region, aligning with population distribution. The top 10 cities account for 41% of the total special bond financing, with Beijing leading at 82.3 billion yuan [2][20]. - Beijing's special bond financing is primarily allocated to affordable housing projects, with 77% of the funds directed towards this area. Shanghai follows with 47.7 billion yuan, mainly for land recovery projects [22][23]. - The issuance of special bonds in third and fourth-tier cities has reached 256.2 billion yuan, accounting for 50% of the total, indicating a shift in focus towards these regions [25]. Future Outlook - The issuance of land recovery special bonds is expected to increase significantly, with a conservative estimate of 5.7 billion yuan in total for 2025. This will help optimize the inventory structure and provide more high-quality new supply to the market [9][12]. - The special bond issuance structure shows a clear trend towards supporting land recovery, urban village renovation, and affordable housing, which collectively enhance market supply and demand stability [17][28].