迈向20年来最严重供给短缺，华尔街大行：铝价具有50-60%的长期上涨潜力

Group 1 - The global aluminum market is facing the most severe supply shortage in over two decades, with a potential crisis of inventory depletion if prices remain at current levels [1] - Citi analysts predict that aluminum prices need to exceed $3,000 per ton to stimulate necessary supply growth, with a long-term potential increase of 50-60% towards $4,000 per ton [1][4] - The report emphasizes the strong demand outlook for aluminum driven by sectors such as electric vehicles, renewable energy, and emerging technologies like robotics and AI [4][6] Group 2 - China's idle aluminum capacity has been fully consumed, entering a phase of no new primary aluminum production growth, while demand continues to surge [4][6] - Indonesia is being looked at to fill the supply gap, but even with all planned projects, it will only partially alleviate the shortage, with projected capacity reaching 2.3 million tons by 2029 [7][8] - The report indicates that aluminum prices must remain above $3,000 per ton to provide sufficient returns for new projects, with a potential need for prices to reach around $4,000 per ton if supply does not meet demand [9][10] Group 3 - The aluminum market is undergoing a fundamental structural shift characterized by low inventory, lack of supply elasticity, and strong emerging demand, indicating a bullish long-term outlook [12] - The report highlights that the risk of actual deficits, inventory depletion, and spot premiums in the aluminum market is significantly greater compared to copper [12]