连平：美联储重启降息对全球股市影响几何？

Group 1 - The market has strong expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September, with a 92% probability for a 25 basis point cut and 8% for a 50 basis point cut [1] - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on September 16-17 has raised questions about the potential impact of a rate cut on the U.S. stock market and whether it would boost U.S. equities or accelerate capital flows to other global markets [1][2] Group 2 - There are two types of interest rate cuts: preventive cuts, which are moderate measures taken to avert potential economic risks, and crisis cuts, which are aggressive actions taken during severe economic downturns [2] - Historical analysis shows that preventive cuts generally have a positive effect on the U.S. stock market, while crisis cuts often fail to prevent market declines due to existing economic challenges [7][8] Group 3 - The current economic environment in the U.S. is characterized by "stagflation," with a GDP growth rate of 2.4% in Q4 2024, which is lower than the previous quarter's 3.1% [10] - The inflation rate remains relatively high, with core PCE and CPI growth rates at 2.86% and 3.2% respectively, complicating the effectiveness of the upcoming preventive rate cuts [10][11] Group 4 - The first phase of the current rate cut cycle has not met expectations, with the stock market showing weak performance despite a total of 100 basis points cut over three months [11] - The market's reaction has been characterized by volatility, with a pattern of initial gains followed by declines, reflecting concerns over inflation and economic stability [11][16] Group 5 - There has been a notable outflow of funds from the U.S. stock market, with approximately $259 billion exiting in the first half of the year, primarily reallocating to safer assets like bonds and money markets [17][21] - Despite the outflow, the U.S. stock market remains dominant in global asset allocation, with a significant portion of funds still allocated to U.S. equities [21][22] Group 6 - The potential for a systemic shift in capital from U.S. to global markets is limited, as the outflows are more about risk management rather than a loss of confidence in U.S. equities [21][22] - Future capital flows will depend on the Federal Reserve's policy decisions and the economic landscape, with two possible strategies: a cautious approach maintaining moderate cuts or an aggressive strategy under political pressure [23][24]