演员已就位，美联储大戏马上开战

Core Viewpoint - The recent personnel changes at the Federal Reserve have added uncertainty to the upcoming interest rate decision, with the potential for a divided voting outcome among committee members [1][3][4]. Group 1: Personnel Changes - Lisa Cook has been allowed to remain on the Federal Reserve Board, which adds significant uncertainty to the upcoming meeting [3][6]. - Stephen Miran's nomination was swiftly approved by the Senate, and he is expected to strengthen the dovish camp within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) [3][11]. - The contrasting situations of Cook and Miran highlight the political tensions affecting the Federal Reserve's independence [10][12]. Group 2: Voting Dynamics - The market generally anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut, but the inclusion of Cook and Miran could lead to a rare "four-way split" in voting [4][13]. - Possible voting factions include a dovish camp supporting a 50 basis point cut, a moderate camp favoring a 25 basis point cut, a group advocating for no change, and the potential for Cook to unexpectedly support a rate hike [14][15]. - If an unprecedented outcome occurs, it could lead to significant confusion in policy signals from the FOMC and unpredictable market reactions [15].