ETO Markets 市场洞察：总统与美联储的权斗升级！女理事罢免案现惊人逆转

Core Viewpoint - A federal appeals court has upheld a lower court's temporary injunction allowing Federal Reserve Board member Lisa Cook to continue her duties, which is significant as it coincides with the Fed's upcoming monetary policy meeting [1][5]. Group 1: Legal Dispute and Independence of the Federal Reserve - The legal dispute centers around the independence of the Federal Reserve, with the Trump administration seeking to remove Cook based on allegations of submitting false housing loan applications [3][4]. - Cook's legal team denies any wrongdoing and argues that the removal is politically motivated due to differences in interest rate policies between her and the Trump administration [4]. - The Federal Reserve Act stipulates that the President can only remove a Board member for "cause," and Cook's team contends that the government has not provided valid reasons [4]. Group 2: Court Rulings and Opinions - A district judge previously ruled that Cook is "very likely to succeed" in her case, leading to a temporary halt on her removal [5]. - The appeals court upheld this ruling with a 2-1 decision, where the two judges appointed by Biden expressed concerns about the potential disruption to the status quo and Cook's lack of a fair hearing [5]. - The dissenting judge, appointed by Trump, argued that the President should have the authority to ensure that key positions are held by trustworthy individuals [5][6]. Group 3: Potential Impact on Gold Prices - The court's decision alleviates market concerns regarding executive interference in the independence of the central bank, which may stabilize monetary policy expectations and suppress safe-haven demand for gold in the short term [7]. - However, the Trump administration's attempts to remove Cook and its implications for interest rate policies could raise long-term concerns about the Fed's credibility and the value of the dollar, potentially increasing gold's appeal as a safe haven [7]. - Cook is viewed as a dovish member, and her situation is closely tied to the Trump administration's pressure for rate cuts, which could create uncertainty in policy decisions and increase market volatility, benefiting gold [7][9]. Group 4: New Appointments and Market Dynamics - The Senate has confirmed Stephen Moore, nominated by Trump, to the Federal Reserve Board, which will coincide with the ongoing legal disputes and may further influence gold prices [8]. - The interplay between the Fed's personnel changes and monetary policy direction is expected to impact the gold market through two pathways: short-term stabilization of policy expectations and long-term political risks that could drive demand for gold as a hedge [9].