国海证券：全球钾肥新增产能有限 高景气中期有望持续

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the global potash fertilizer demand is expected to grow steadily at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.2% from 2025 to 2027, driven by increasing population and food security concerns [1][2] - On the supply side, there will be limited new potash production capacity before the end of 2026, with major new capacities facing high investment costs and existing mines entering marginal extraction phases, leading to increased mining difficulty and costs [1][2][4] - In the short term, domestic demand for potash fertilizer is expected to rise as the autumn application season approaches, supported by international market demand, particularly from India, which may help maintain high potash prices [1][2] Group 2 - Potash is one of the three essential nutrients for crop growth, with a stronger consumption elasticity compared to nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizers. Global potash demand is projected to grow from 60 million tons in 2016 to 72.5 million tons in 2024, with a CAGR of 2.4% [3] - China is a major consumer of potash, accounting for approximately 26% of global consumption. The apparent consumption of potassium chloride in China is expected to reach about 18.72 million tons in 2024, with a CAGR of approximately 5.5% from 2017 to 2024, surpassing the global average growth rate [3] - The global potash industry is characterized by resource monopolization, with major resources concentrated in Canada, Russia, Belarus, and Laos. By 2024, global potash production capacity is expected to be around 77.2 million tons, with limited new capacity additions before 2026 [4] Group 3 - The investment recommendation suggests maintaining a "recommended" rating for the potash fertilizer industry, highlighting key companies such as Yara International (000893.SZ), Salt Lake Potash (000792.SZ), and Oriental Tower (002545.SZ) for their strategic positions and growth potential in the potash market [5]