欧佩克+增产 全球石油市场或将出现过剩

Core Insights - The International Energy Agency (IEA) indicates that global oil supply will grow faster than expected due to increased production from OPEC+ members and non-OPEC+ regions, suggesting a potential oversupply by 2026 [1] - The IEA's monthly report states that global oil supply is projected to increase by 2.7 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025, up from a previous forecast of 2.5 million bpd, with an additional increase of 2.1 million bpd expected next year [1] - Despite an upward revision of the global oil demand growth forecast to 740,000 bpd, the supply growth is significantly outpacing demand, with a potential oversupply of approximately 3.3 million bpd next year [1] Supply Dynamics - OPEC+ is expected to increase supply, contributing to a growing imbalance in the oil market [1] - The IEA notes that sanctions on Russia and Iran could lead to supply losses, further complicating the supply landscape [1] - The IEA's demand forecast is at the lower end of industry predictions, as it anticipates a faster transition to renewable energy compared to other forecasting agencies [1] Future Projections - OPEC is expected to project a higher demand growth rate than the IEA and will update its forecasts shortly [1] - The report suggests that the global market may experience a supply surplus, primarily driven by growth from non-OPEC+ oil-producing countries and limited demand expansion [1]