美国经济有多糟糕：失业率竟直线上升，美国民众勒紧裤腰带过日子

Group 1: Economic Overview - The current U.S. economy is heavily supported by consumer spending, with many individuals still employed and able to spend [1] - However, the foundation of this "prosperity" appears unstable, as total debt has reached a historical high and serious delinquencies have also surged to a decade-high [1] - A recent PwC survey indicates that inflation and future uncertainties are prompting households to plan for reduced holiday spending by approximately 5.3% [1] Group 2: Employment Data - The unemployment rate stands at 4.3%, the highest since 2021, yet still below the long-term average of 5.7% since 1948 [3] - A significant downward revision of 911,000 non-farm jobs over the past year marks the largest adjustment since 2000, suggesting that real economic growth is weaker than previously reported [3] - In August, only 22,000 jobs were added, and for the first time since 2020, layoffs exceeded new hires, resulting in a net job loss of 13,000 [5] Group 3: Labor Market Dynamics - The balance of supply and demand in the labor market is shifting, with the number of job seekers surpassing available job openings for the first time in four years [5] - The employment index in manufacturing has dropped to a five-year low, indicating a cooling demand across various sectors, particularly in leisure, professional services, retail, and manufacturing [5] - Confidence among unemployed individuals in finding new jobs has plummeted to 44.9%, the lowest since this survey began in 2013 [5] Group 4: Financial Market Response - Despite a struggling real economy, the financial markets are thriving, with the S&P 500 index rising over 10% this year and reaching new historical highs [7] - Poor economic data is fueling expectations that the Federal Reserve will soon implement interest rate cuts, with traders predicting a 90% chance of a cumulative 75 basis points cut by year-end [7] - Major institutions, including Fitch and Bank of America, forecast at least two rate cuts by the Fed this year, with further cuts anticipated next year [7] Group 5: Economic Contradictions - The U.S. economy is characterized by conflicting perspectives, with some believing the worst is over due to improving corporate profits and confidence indicators, while others see a fragile consumer market underpinned by high debt levels [9] - The labor market shows low unemployment rates, yet internal conditions are deteriorating, creating a disconnect between the financial markets and the real economy [9] - This complex situation places the U.S. economy at a critical juncture, described as a bent steel bar that is "bending but not yet broken" [9] Group 6: Policy Challenges - Policymakers face the challenge of balancing inflation control, job stability, and market reassurance, where any action could exacerbate existing tensions [11] - Public sentiment reflects growing dissatisfaction with economic performance, indicating that economic issues have become a significant political pressure point [11]