开源证券：8月新房上海持续领涨 二手房价格同比降幅缩小

Core Insights - The real estate market in China is showing signs of stabilization, with new home prices in 70 cities experiencing a steady month-on-month decline and a reduced year-on-year decline as of August 2025 [1][4] - In first-tier cities, new home prices are seeing a smaller decline, with Shanghai being the only city to report an increase in both month-on-month and year-on-year comparisons [3][4] - The second-hand housing market is experiencing an expanded month-on-month decline, but the year-on-year decline is narrowing [2][4] New Home Market - In August 2025, new home prices in first, second, and third-tier cities decreased by -0.1%, -0.3%, and -0.4% respectively, maintaining the same decline as July [1] - Year-on-year, new home prices in first, second, and third-tier cities fell by -0.9%, -2.4%, and -3.7%, with the overall decline for 70 cities reducing by 0.4 percentage points to 3.0% [1] - Among the 70 cities, 9 saw an increase in new home prices month-on-month, while 57 experienced a decline [1] Second-Hand Home Market - The second-hand home prices in 70 cities decreased by -0.6% month-on-month, with the decline expanding by 0.1 percentage points [2] - Year-on-year, second-hand home prices fell by -5.5%, with the decline narrowing by 0.4 percentage points [2] - In August 2025, only 1 city reported an increase in second-hand home prices month-on-month, while 69 cities saw a decline [2] Performance of Key Cities - In the performance of 35 key cities, new home prices showed a mixed trend, with Shanghai leading with a month-on-month increase of +0.4% and a year-on-year increase of +5.9% [3] - Shanghai and Taiyuan led the year-on-year performance for new homes from January to August 2025, with increases of +5.8% and +1.1% respectively [3] Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include those with strong fundamentals and a focus on improving customer demand, such as Greentown China, China Overseas Land & Investment, and others [5] - Companies benefiting from both residential and commercial real estate recovery include China Resources Land and Longfor Group [5] - High-quality property management firms under the "Good House, Good Service" policy are also recommended, including China Resources Mixc Lifestyle and Greentown Service [5]