Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2025-09-16 06:50Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs raised the target price for SMIC's H-shares by 15% to HKD 73.1, driven by optimism regarding China's IC design demand and AI trends, which are expected to strongly support SMIC's production and average selling prices [1][2] Group 1: Financial Projections - Goldman Sachs maintained a buy rating on SMIC while adjusting revenue and earnings per share forecasts for 2028 and 2029, with EPS estimates increased by 3% and 7%, and revenue forecasts raised by 0.4% and 2% respectively [1] - The revenue guidance for Q3 2025 is expected to grow by 5%-7% quarter-on-quarter, which could act as a short-term catalyst for the stock price [2] Group 2: Market Trends and Demand - The optimistic outlook is primarily based on the rapid growth in AI application demand and the increasing need for advanced process technology from local chip design companies in China [2] - The ongoing growth in domestic integrated circuit design demand is anticipated to provide more order opportunities for SMIC [1] Group 3: Operational Performance - SMIC has demonstrated robust financial performance, with a 22.0% year-on-year revenue increase to USD 4.456 billion in the first half of 2025, a gross margin of 21.4%, and a net margin of 10.5% [2] - The revenue from wafer foundry services grew by 24.6% year-on-year to USD 4.229 billion, attributed to increased wafer sales, rising average selling prices, and changes in product mix [2] Group 4: Capacity Expansion and Structural Optimization - SMIC is actively expanding its capacity and optimizing its product structure, adding nearly 20,000 pieces of 12-inch standard logic monthly capacity in the first half of the year [3] - The revenue structure shows significant contributions from consumer electronics, smartphones, and industrial and automotive applications, with the latter's share increasing from 7.7% to 10.1% year-on-year [3] - The share of 12-inch wafer revenue rose from 74.5% to 77.1% year-on-year, indicating a continuous optimization towards advanced processes [3]