Economic Signals - The U.S. labor department revealed that non-farm employment data was overestimated by 910,000 jobs over the past year, averaging an overreport of 76,000 jobs per month [1] - August saw only 22,000 new jobs added, with the unemployment rate exceeding 4%, reminiscent of the data revisions before the 2008 crisis [2] - GDP growth of 3.3% in Q2 was driven by a drop in imports and consumption funded by savings, while business investment and exports declined [2] Market Reactions - Gold prices have reached a historical high when adjusted for inflation, surpassing the 1980 peak, with central banks purchasing 1,045 tons in 2024, indicating heightened risk aversion [4] - A significant number of executives are selling stocks, with 198 out of the top 200 transactions being sales, suggesting potential risks as insiders exit [4] - Money market fund balances have reached $7.4 trillion, nearly one-third of U.S. GDP, as investors prefer to earn 5% interest rather than invest in the stock market or real economy [4] Economic Conditions - One-third of U.S. states are experiencing economic decline, particularly energy and industrial states, while southern and larger states are propping up the economy [4] - Current economic indicators show signs of potential stagflation, with GDP growth near zero when adjusted for inflation, core inflation at 3% above target, rising unemployment, and declining real wages [7] Historical Context - The 1970s stagflation saw inflation peak at 13.5%, mortgage rates at 20%, and unemployment at 10.8%, with the stock market stagnating for 14 years [5] - Supply chain disruptions, similar to those during the oil crisis, are currently exacerbated by the pandemic, chip shortages, and geopolitical conflicts [5][6] Federal Reserve Dilemma - Market predictions suggest the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates by 25-50 basis points, but historical lessons indicate that premature rate cuts can lead to a cycle of inflation resurgence [8] - The Federal Reserve faces a dilemma between not lowering rates to avoid burdening households and the risk of reigniting inflation if rates are cut [8] Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to focus on low-interest-rate benefiting assets, such as AI technology stocks and real estate, which may see reduced borrowing costs [10] - Allocating 5%-10% of funds into physical gold or quality gold mining stocks is recommended as a hedge against risks during stagflation [10] - Maintaining 20%-30% cash reserves allows for opportunistic buying during market downturns, while diversifying investments across stocks, bonds, and gold can mitigate risks [10]
就业数据造假91万？美国经济其实在硬撑 普通人如何避免被割韭菜？
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-09-16 07:18