美联储本周或“大幅降息”！普通人如何抓住全球资产配置机会？

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a significant interest rate cut, with a probability exceeding 90% for a 25 basis point reduction and a potential total of three cuts within the year [1][2] - Current economic indicators show a "soft landing" with an unemployment rate of 4.3% and a low non-farm payroll increase of only 22,000 jobs, alongside a manageable inflation rate of 2.9% year-on-year [2][4] - The combination of cooling employment and controllable inflation allows the Fed to adjust its policy without triggering a recession, marking a shift towards "preventive rate cuts" aimed at preemptively addressing potential economic slowdowns [4] Group 2 - Emerging markets, particularly A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, are becoming attractive due to their lower valuations compared to U.S. stocks, with the Shanghai Composite Index's price-to-earnings ratio at 15 times versus the S&P 500's 30 times [5][6] - Gold has seen a nearly 40% increase in price this year, surpassing $3,600 per ounce, driven by lower holding costs due to rate cuts and increased demand from global central banks amid rising geopolitical risks [7][9] - The U.S. dollar may weaken in the short term due to rate cuts, but strong economic resilience in the U.S. could benefit tech giants like Apple and Microsoft from lower financing costs [9] Group 3 - Investors are advised to adopt a "dynamic observation and flexible allocation" mindset, focusing on policy signals while avoiding emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations [9][10] - Suggested investment strategies include diversifying into low-correlation assets such as technology stocks in Hong Kong and A-shares, short-duration U.S. Treasuries, high-rated corporate bonds, and alternative assets like gold ETFs and commodity funds [10][11] - Historical data indicates that investors holding assets for over six months during a rate cut cycle tend to smooth out short-term volatility, as seen in the 18% increase of the Shanghai Composite Index within six months following the 2019 rate cuts [11]