“央行大分裂”引爆市场！欧元逼近四年新高，聪明钱已押注1.2大关

Core Viewpoint - The euro is approaching a four-year high against the dollar as traders prepare for the Federal Reserve's anticipated interest rate cuts, highlighting a divergence in policy trajectories between the Fed and the European Central Bank [1][3]. Group 1: Euro Performance - The euro to dollar exchange rate has risen to its highest level since July 3, nearing the 1.18 mark, with an increase of nearly 14% in 2025, potentially marking the best nine-month performance on record [1]. - A breakthrough of the July high of 1.1829 could signify the strongest level since September 2021, with options markets indicating a potential move towards the significant 1.20 level [3]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Positioning - Demand for the euro is supported by market expectations that the Fed will enter a loosening cycle while the ECB will refrain from further rate cuts, with three anticipated 25 basis point cuts by the Fed by year-end enhancing the euro's appeal [3]. - The latest data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) shows that net long positions in the euro have reached their highest level since early July, indicating bullish sentiment [5]. Group 3: Risks and Market Dynamics - Analysts suggest that the current optimism may be short-lived if the Fed's stance is less dovish than expected, which could lead to rising U.S. Treasury yields and diminish the euro's attractiveness [6]. - If the Fed's communication lacks dovish signals, it may lead to a liquidation of euro long positions, increasing selling pressure [6]. - Conversely, if the Fed's stance is more dovish than anticipated, it could lead to a significant drop in U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar, allowing the euro to potentially enter a broader upward trend above the 1.20 target [6].