美联储降息即将落地，狂欢中的美股需要聚焦三大问题

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market is experiencing a rally, with the Nasdaq 100 index recently achieving its longest winning streak in over a year, having risen for five consecutive months [1] - Morgan Stanley warns that the anticipated interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve may dampen investor enthusiasm, as the market has already priced in a quarter-point cut [3] - The S&P 500 index has been in a period of low volatility, with daily fluctuations averaging less than 0.9%, marking the longest calm period in two years, yet it continues to reach new highs [3] Group 2 - The market's reaction to the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision will depend on various scenarios, including the perceived dovishness of the Fed's guidance and any indications of economic slowdown [4] - Historical data shows that the S&P 500 index typically declines in September, but it has risen in past instances when the Fed cut rates without an economic contraction [6] - The potential for the stock market to continue reaching new highs post-rate cut hinges on improved economic data, sustained dovish signals from the Fed, and strong corporate earnings, particularly in the tech sector [8]