Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Jin Tou Wang·2025-09-16 09:34Core Viewpoint - The domestic methanol futures market is experiencing slight fluctuations, with the main contract closing at 2375.00 yuan/ton, a minor decrease of 0.46% [1] Macro Factors - The U.S. and Europe plan to strengthen sanctions against Russia, and the geopolitical conflict between Russia and Ukraine shows no signs of easing [1] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September is relatively high [1] Supply and Production - Recent analysis indicates that domestic methanol production capacity is recovering, with output increasing more than the capacity lost due to maintenance and production cuts [1] - Inventory levels at domestic enterprises have decreased due to increased procurement by some olefin companies in Inner Mongolia [1] Demand Indicators - Northwest methanol enterprises signed contracts for 89,800 tons, an increase of 14,400 tons compared to the previous period [1] - Sample enterprises have 250,700 tons of orders pending shipment, up by 9,400 tons, reflecting a 3.91% increase [1] - Olefin operating rate is at 82.6%, down 3.1%; dimethyl ether at 4.8%, unchanged; methylene chloride at 85.6%, down 0.2%; acetic acid at 83.1%, down 1.1%; formaldehyde at 43.1%, up 5.4%; and MTBE at 61.6%, down 0.5% [1] Market Outlook - Domestic methanol production remains high, with stable downstream demand expected [1] - Anticipated high import volumes for September and continued accumulation of methanol port inventories [1] - The domestic methanol market is expected to experience narrow fluctuations, with a short-term support level around 2395 yuan/ton, and a recommendation to observe the market [1]