美联储降息重启窗口临近，大类资产配置应该怎么做？

Group 1 - The global financial market is entering a delicate waiting period, with attention focused on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on September 18 [1][2] - The CME FedWatch tool indicates that the market expects a 90% probability of a rate cut in September, with potential for three rate cuts this year [3][4] - This marks the first rate cut since 2025 and signifies a critical turning point in the current monetary easing cycle that began in September 2024 [3] Group 2 - The current rate cut is characterized as a non-typical preventive measure, differing from past easing cycles which were primarily reactive to economic downturns [5][6] - Historical context shows that rate cuts can be categorized into two types: crisis-driven and preventive, with the current situation resembling a preventive approach due to a "stagflation-like" economic backdrop [7] - The combination of economic slowdown and persistent inflation pressures necessitates a careful balance between stimulating the economy and controlling inflation [7] Group 3 - Major asset classes need to adjust their strategies in response to the unique characteristics of the current rate cut cycle, respecting historical patterns while considering current variables [10] - U.S. Treasuries are expected to benefit directly from rate cuts, but caution is advised regarding potential fluctuations in long-term yields due to economic recovery expectations [11] - U.S. equities typically perform well during rate cut cycles, with the S&P 500 averaging a 22.5% increase in the 12 months following a cut, although exceptions exist during recessionary periods [13] Group 4 - The A-share market's performance is primarily influenced by domestic conditions and policy directions, rather than U.S. monetary policy [16][18] - Historical trends indicate that growth and small-cap stocks tend to outperform during U.S. rate cut cycles, with technology sectors leading the way [17] - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to show high elasticity due to its sensitivity to both domestic fundamentals and overseas liquidity, with an average increase of 35.4% in the 12 months following a rate cut [19][21] Group 5 - The Chinese bond market is currently facing headwinds, but the resumption of U.S. rate cuts is expected to create a more favorable external environment, potentially easing domestic monetary policy constraints [24] - Gold is positioned as a crucial asset in the context of "de-dollarization," with its price typically rising in anticipation of rate cuts, although post-cut performance may vary [25][26] - The current market dynamics suggest that a diversified asset allocation strategy is essential to navigate uncertainties and optimize long-term returns [28][29]