5年后，房价会继续“上涨”？还是会开始“下跌”？李嘉诚和王健林的看法一致

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is experiencing a rollercoaster of fluctuations, with a consensus among industry leaders that the next five years will see a "structural differentiation" in housing prices across different cities and regions [5][7]. Group 1: Current Market Trends - In the first half of 2025, 42 out of 70 major cities in China saw an increase in new residential property prices, while 28 cities experienced a decline [1]. - First-tier cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou continue to show price increases, with year-on-year growth rates of 3.2%, 2.8%, 4.1%, and 1.9% respectively [1]. - Conversely, third and fourth-tier cities are facing challenges, with a 1.5% year-on-year decline in new residential property prices, marking the third consecutive year of price drops [2]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - Population flow is a significant factor affecting housing prices, with first-tier and strong second-tier cities experiencing net inflows, while many third and fourth-tier cities face outflows [2]. - Financial environment improvements, such as reduced down payment ratios and lower mortgage rates, have contributed to market confidence, with the average mortgage rate for first-time homebuyers dropping to approximately 3.8% [4]. - The supply-demand relationship is also crucial, as a 5.7% year-on-year decline in real estate development investment and a 12.3% drop in new construction area have led to reduced supply in stable demand areas, supporting price increases [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Industry leaders like Li Ka-shing and Wang Jianlin predict that high-quality assets in core first and second-tier cities will maintain value and see moderate growth, while third and fourth-tier cities will face significant downward pressure on prices [7]. - The real estate market is transitioning from a phase of broad growth to a more refined development stage, emphasizing the importance of quality properties over mere ownership [7]. - For potential homebuyers, focusing on actual needs and affordability is more critical than speculating on price movements, as the essence of housing is for living rather than investment [10].