DLS MARKETS回顾亚洲市场：市场物理与政治引力的碰撞

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is perceived as a political showdown rather than a mere monetary policy discussion, with a strong likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut and ongoing speculation about a potential 50 basis point cut [2][3] Group 1: Market Reactions - Asian stock markets have reached new highs, oil prices have slightly increased, and the dollar remains stable, indicating a cautious positioning by investors ahead of the Fed's decision [2] - The market is not overly optimistic but is instead adopting a "gambler's calm," anticipating a 25 basis point cut while recognizing the pressure from Trump for more aggressive easing [3] Group 2: Political Dynamics - The Federal Reserve is increasingly viewed as a political entity, with decision-makers seen as representatives of political stances rather than purely academic backgrounds, leading to a potential loss of direction for the Fed [3][4] - The possibility of a "four-way split" vote at the Fed could symbolize a significant political drama, indicating a fracture in the institution's decision-making process [4][5] Group 3: Rate Cut Scenarios - DLSMARKETS outlines various potential outcomes for the Fed's rate decision, with a 47.5% probability of a dovish 25 basis point cut being the most likely scenario, which would be interpreted positively by the market [6][8] - A 50 basis point cut is seen as a double-edged sword, with potential market reactions ranging from panic to a surge in risk assets, depending on how the cut is perceived [9]