摩根士丹利首席经济学家塞思·卡彭特称 美国经济正“明显放缓”

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. economy is showing signs of significant slowdown, with expectations of low growth in the coming quarters, as indicated by various economic indicators and expert analyses [1][2]. Economic Performance - The U.S. labor market has weakened significantly compared to a few months ago, with new job additions expected to be only half of initial projections for the period from March 2024 to March 2025 [1]. - Industrial production is also showing early signs of fatigue, contributing to a forecast of long-term low growth for the U.S. economy [1]. - The anticipated growth rate for the U.S. economy in 2026 is around 1.25%, significantly lower than the projected 2.8% for 2024 [1]. Inflation and Trade Policies - The increase in tariffs under the Trump administration is expected to have a delayed impact on the real economy, similar to the effects observed during his first term [2]. - Rising inflation is anticipated, driven in part by these tariffs, which have already begun to affect consumer prices, particularly in sectors like automotive and food [2][3]. - The inflation rate rose to 2.9% in August, up from 2.7% in July, indicating a trend of increasing prices [2]. Corporate Responses and Labor Market - Companies are increasingly passing on tariff costs to consumers, leading to price hikes in imported goods [3]. - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates to support the labor market, which is under pressure from economic conditions and the rise of artificial intelligence [3]. - The integration of AI in businesses is leading to job reductions, as companies seek to enhance efficiency, with significant layoffs already reported [3][4]. Future Outlook - There is a growing concern that a recession, exacerbated by AI replacing jobs, could have a more severe impact on the labor market than previous downturns [4][5].