Moody’s(US:MCO) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-09-16 11:05Core Viewpoint - Moody's Chief Economist Mark Zandi warns that the probability of the U.S. economy entering a recession within the next twelve months has risen to 48%, indicating a concerningly high level of risk [1][5] Economic Indicators - Zandi highlights a significant decrease in U.S. residential building permits as a critical signal of impending economic recession, with current permit approvals nearing the lowest levels seen during the pandemic [1] - The ongoing weak demand from homebuyers and an increase in unsold homes have led builders to substantially reduce their development plans [1] Upcoming Data and Federal Reserve Actions - Zandi advises close attention to the upcoming August loan data to be released on September 17, coinciding with a Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting where a rate cut is widely anticipated [3] - He suggests that this data may provide the Federal Reserve with additional justification for a rate cut, although he expresses skepticism about the effectiveness of such measures in preventing a recession [3] Overall Economic Outlook - Zandi has repeatedly warned of economic risks, stating that while the probability of recession has not exceeded 50%, the current risk level is historically high and warrants caution [5] - A combination of factors, including a slowdown in the real estate market, tightening credit conditions, and weakened consumer demand, poses a threat to a soft landing for the economy [5] - The effectiveness of potential monetary policy adjustments in countering the current downward pressures remains uncertain, with market participants and economists closely monitoring forthcoming data releases to assess the true trajectory of the U.S. economy [5]