国内外金价“牛”气十足！黄金现在还值得投资吗？

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices, reaching a historic high of nearly $3690 per ounce, is primarily driven by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and a weakening US dollar, which enhances gold's appeal as a non-yielding asset [1][2]. Macroeconomic Factors - Investors are betting on the Federal Reserve implementing interest rate cuts this week, with strong expectations for further monetary easing in the coming months, significantly supporting gold prices [1][3]. - The US dollar index fell to its lowest point in over seven weeks, providing strong support for gold prices as a weaker dollar makes gold cheaper for investors holding other currencies [1]. Market Performance - On September 15, gold closed up $35.71, nearly 1%, at $3678.66 per ounce, and continued to rise to $3689.61 per ounce on September 16, marking a new historical high [2]. - The strong performance of gold reflects robust bullish sentiment in the market [2]. Federal Reserve Meeting - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is highly anticipated, with expectations for updates on economic and interest rate forecasts, which will provide important clues about future monetary policy [3]. - Recent weak labor data and the absence of significant inflation surprises have heightened expectations for further rate cuts, making gold an attractive option for investors seeking safety [3]. Physical Gold Market - On September 16, various gold retailers reported price increases, with prices ranging from 1086.0 to 1091.0 yuan per gram, reflecting changes in consumer demand and market expectations [4]. - Bank gold bar prices also fluctuated, with some banks reporting increases while others saw slight declines, influenced by international gold price trends and internal pricing strategies [4]. ETF Demand and Market Dynamics - In August, global gold ETF net inflows reached 53.4 tons, significantly higher than July's 22.6 tons, with UBS raising its annual gold ETF demand forecast from 450 tons to nearly 600 tons [5]. - The gold market faces a complex interplay of bullish and bearish factors, with ongoing economic uncertainties and geopolitical risks supporting prices, while potential hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve could lead to price corrections [5]. Investment Strategy - Despite the strong performance of gold, caution is advised for investors, emphasizing the importance of monitoring Federal Reserve developments, economic data, and geopolitical situations to better navigate investment opportunities in the gold market [6].