今明两年不买房，5年后会买不起吗？王健林曹德旺的说法“近乎明示”

Core Insights - The current real estate market is experiencing a significant adjustment, with a notable decline in housing prices in various regions, particularly in third and fourth-tier cities [3][4] - Young individuals face immense pressure regarding home purchases, with a high percentage expressing concerns about affordability and the fear of missing out on buying opportunities [1][3] - The market is characterized by a clear differentiation between high-quality properties in core urban areas and those in less desirable locations, with the former likely to maintain value while the latter may see price declines [4][5] Market Trends - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, new residential prices in 70 major cities decreased by 0.3% for new homes and 0.5% for second-hand homes in the first half of 2025, indicating a market adjustment rather than continuous growth [3] - A demographic shift is evident, with a declining birth rate leading to a population decrease, which is expected to impact housing demand negatively [3] - Predictions suggest that the real estate market will enter a phase of "overall surplus but structural shortage" within the next five years, indicating an oversupply of housing but a continued demand for high-quality properties [3] Investment Considerations - The rental market is becoming increasingly attractive, with a significant portion of young people opting to rent rather than buy, as rental yields are often lower than mortgage rates [7][10] - Financial experts recommend that housing costs should not exceed 30% of a household's monthly income to avoid excessive financial strain [7] - The importance of considering long-term career and personal plans when making housing decisions is emphasized, as buying a home is a long-term commitment [7][8] Psychological Factors - The "fear of missing out" on home purchases can lead to poor financial decisions, as seen in cases where individuals bought homes at high prices only to face subsequent declines [1][8] - The narrative that "housing prices will only rise" contributes to anxiety among potential buyers, highlighting the need for independent analysis rather than following market trends blindly [8][10] - The notion that homeownership is the only path to stability is challenged, with suggestions that investing in personal development may yield better long-term returns than real estate [10][11]