Where Will Upstart Be in 5 Years?

Group 1 - The core idea is that while major companies dominate the AI investment landscape, smaller firms like Upstart are well-positioned to capitalize on AI within their niche markets [1] - Upstart's shares are currently trading 84% below their peak in 2021 but have seen a 75% increase over the past year and a 123% rise over the last three years, indicating a recovery trajectory [2] - The company utilizes a proprietary AI model to analyze over 2,500 variables about potential borrowers, aiming to enhance credit access [3] Group 2 - Upstart has returned to growth after facing challenges in 2023 due to rising interest rates, with revenue and loan volumes increasing by 84% and 121% respectively in the first half of 2025 [4] - The launch of Upstart's home equity line of credit (HELOC) product has led to a 750% year-over-year increase in originations in Q2, highlighting significant demand and a large untapped market of over $30 trillion in home equity in the U.S. [5] - The company has successfully navigated rising interest rates and is poised for future growth, potentially becoming a much larger entity by the end of the decade [6] Group 3 - Upstart's shares have performed well over the past year, with revenue increasing by 84% and loan volumes more than doubling, reflecting growing investor confidence [8] - The total addressable market (TAM) for Upstart, encompassing personal, small business, auto, and home loans, exceeds $3 trillion in annual origination volume in the U.S., indicating a vast opportunity for the company [9]