“恐怖数据”大超预期，美国消费者支出为何屹立不倒？

Core Insights - Despite ongoing concerns about economic slowdown, labor market issues, and tariff increases, U.S. consumer spending remained stable in August, with retail sales rising by 0.6% month-over-month, matching the revised figure for July and significantly exceeding economists' expectations of 0.2% growth [1][4]. Group 1: Retail Sales Performance - In August, 9 out of 13 retail categories in the U.S. reported sales growth, with online retailers, clothing stores, and sporting goods stores leading the way, likely driven by back-to-school shopping demand [4]. - Although auto sales also increased, the growth rate was relatively slower compared to other categories [4]. - The report indicates that despite multiple pressures such as tariffs raising prices, low consumer confidence, and signs of labor market fatigue, U.S. consumers continued to spend [4]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior and Economic Outlook - Wage growth has cooled, but most workers still see wage increases outpacing inflation, with high-income groups benefiting from stock market gains [4]. - Frances Donald, Chief Economist at RBC, noted that consumer activity, particularly retail sales, is steadily progressing without significant acceleration or deceleration, with high-income households disproportionately driving overall consumption [4]. - Analysts suggest that part of the strong retail sales data may be attributed to rising prices due to tariffs rather than an actual increase in sales volume [4]. Group 3: Economic Concerns and Consumer Sentiment - Sam Bullard, Senior Economist at Wells Fargo, stated that while consumer spending shows inherent resilience, overall growth is slowing, and concerns about the labor market are increasing, which may lead to a slowdown in consumption growth for the remainder of the year [5]. - A survey from the New York Fed indicated that inflation-adjusted household spending in August fell to its lowest level in nearly four and a half years, although more consumers are still opting to purchase electronics, appliances, furniture, and engage in home repairs or vacations [5][6]. - Recent months have seen a rise in pessimism regarding the economic outlook, leading employers to halt hiring [6].