乌无人机重创俄炼油产能，俄石油运输公司发减产预警！

Core Viewpoint - The Russian state oil pipeline company Transneft has warned oil producers about potential production cuts due to drone attacks on key export ports and refineries in Ukraine, leading to a rise in international crude oil prices [1][4]. Group 1: Impact of Drone Attacks - Since August, Ukraine has intensified attacks on Russian energy assets to disrupt military operations and reduce Kremlin revenue, which heavily relies on oil and gas income [3]. - Ukrainian drone strikes have targeted at least 10 refineries, reducing Russian refining capacity by nearly 20% and damaging major Baltic ports Ust-Luga and Primorsk [3][4]. - The attacks on Primorsk, which has a daily export capacity exceeding 1 million barrels, have temporarily halted operations, impacting over 10% of Russia's total oil production [6][7]. Group 2: Transneft's Response - Transneft has restricted oil companies' ability to store oil in its pipeline system, indicating potential production cuts if infrastructure is further damaged [4][5]. - The company has warned producers that they may have to accept lower oil volumes if damage continues, which could lead to a reduction in Russia's oil output, accounting for 9% of global production [4][5]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Future Outlook - The drone attacks are seen as a rapid form of sanctions against Russia, with Western sanctions already targeting the oil and gas sector [5][6]. - Despite the challenges, Russia has shifted much of its oil exports to Asia, with India and China being major buyers, which may mitigate the impact of production cuts [5]. - Analysts from JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs have noted that Russia's ability to increase oil production is now threatened due to limited storage capacity and refinery shutdowns, although demand from Asian buyers may keep production declines moderate [8].