Is Newmont Stock Still a Buy After a 36% Rally in 3 Months?

Core Viewpoint - Newmont Corporation's shares have surged 35.6% in the past three months, driven by rising gold prices and strong earnings performance, supported by operational efficiency and a robust Tier 1 portfolio [1][7]. Group 1: Stock Performance - NEM stock has outperformed the Zacks Mining – Gold industry's 29% rise and the S&P 500's increase of 11.4% [2]. - Among peers, Barrick Mining Corporation, Agnico Eagle Mines Limited, and Kinross Gold Corporation have seen stock increases of 36%, 24.1%, and 49%, respectively [2]. Group 2: Technical Indicators - Technical indicators show bullish momentum for NEM, with the stock trading above its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages (SMA), indicating a long-term uptrend [5]. Group 3: Growth Projects and Strategic Focus - Newmont is investing in growth projects like the Ahafo North expansion in Ghana and the Cadia Panel Caves in Australia, aimed at expanding production capacity and extending mine life [10]. - The acquisition of Newcrest Mining Limited has created a leading portfolio with a multi-decade production profile, expected to deliver significant shareholder value and synergies of $500 million annually [11]. - Newmont has divested non-core businesses, completing a divestiture program that is expected to generate $3 billion in after-tax cash proceeds in 2025 [12]. Group 4: Financial Health - Newmont has a strong liquidity position with $10.2 billion in liquidity, including $6.2 billion in cash and cash equivalents, and a free cash flow of $1.7 billion, up 42% from the prior quarter [13]. - The company has returned approximately $2 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases and reduced debt by $1.4 billion since the beginning of 2025 [13]. Group 5: Gold Price Dynamics - Gold prices have surged 40% this year, driven by geopolitical tensions and central bank purchases, with prices exceeding $3,600 per ton for the first time [16]. - Newmont stands to benefit from the strength in gold prices, which is expected to enhance profitability and cash flow generation [14]. Group 6: Cost Challenges - Newmont faces challenges from rising production costs, with costs applicable to sales and all-in-sustaining costs (AISC) increasing by around 6% and 2% year over year, respectively [18]. - The company anticipates AISC for its total portfolio to rise to $1,630 per ounce in 2025, up from $1,516 per ounce in 2024 [19]. Group 7: Earnings Estimates - Newmont's earnings estimates for 2025 have been revised upward, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 earnings at $5.30, indicating a year-over-year growth of 52.3% [20]. Group 8: Valuation - Newmont is currently trading at a forward price/earnings ratio of 14.88X, which is a discount compared to the industry's average of 15.59X [21]. Group 9: Investment Outlook - Newmont presents an attractive investment case with a robust portfolio of growth projects and solid financial health, although higher production costs may impact margins [24].