日韩有何不同？美国商务部长：“韩国人要么接受，要么缴税”

Group 1 - The trade agreement negotiations between South Korea and the United States regarding tariff reductions have stalled due to concerns over the foreign exchange impact of a $350 billion investment fund [1] - South Korean officials have stated that their investment plan, which includes loans and guarantees, cannot accept terms similar to Japan's $550 billion investment plan finalized in September [2] - The U.S. Secretary of Commerce has indicated that there will be no flexibility shown to South Korea, emphasizing that they must either accept the deal or face tariffs [4] Group 2 - Market participants are worried that the demand for dollars generated by the investment plan will negatively impact the South Korean currency market, leading to a depreciation of the won [4] - The South Korean won is projected to reach a 15-year low against the dollar by the end of 2024, with current rates around 1,390:1 [5] - The South Korean National Pension Fund's annual overseas investment demand of $40 billion is putting significant pressure on the won, with estimates suggesting that the investment plan could generate about $100 billion in dollar demand annually from 2026 to 2028 [9] Group 3 - South Korea is exploring the establishment of a foreign exchange swap line with the U.S. to mitigate the impact of currency fluctuations, highlighting the advantageous position of Japan due to its unlimited swap line with the U.S. [10] - The U.S. Federal Reserve has established permanent swap line arrangements with several countries, including Canada, the UK, Japan, the EU, and Switzerland, and had previously set up a temporary swap line with South Korea during the COVID-19 pandemic [12]