0916：黄金冲击3700，美元破位97！

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to restart its interest rate cut cycle, with a high probability of a 25 basis point cut in September, as market anticipations suggest a total of 75 basis points of cuts by the end of the year [3][5]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Actions - U.S. Treasury Secretary stated that the Federal Reserve has been slow to react, and the market has already priced in a 25 basis point cut [3]. - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on September 17-18 is likely to confirm the start of a rate cut cycle, with 95% of market participants expecting a 25 basis point "preventive cut" [3][5]. - The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a strong likelihood of a 25 basis point cut in September, with probabilities for future meetings showing a gradual expectation of further cuts [4]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The market's interpretation of the Federal Reserve's actions will differ based on the nature of the cuts; a 25 basis point cut is seen as preventive, while a 50 basis point cut would indicate a recessionary response [6][7]. - Historical analysis shows that during previous rate cut cycles, the A-shares and Hong Kong stocks reacted differently based on whether the cuts were preventive or recessionary [7]. Group 3: Impact on Gold Prices - Regardless of the type of rate cut, both preventive and recessionary cuts are favorable for gold, with the price of gold approaching $3,700 per ounce as the dollar index falls below 97 [9]. - The current trends indicate a continuation of rising gold prices and falling dollar values, reflecting market expectations ahead of the Federal Reserve's decision [9].