百利好丨黄金年内30次创新高，央行购金与降息预期共推涨势

Core Viewpoint - The price of gold has surged significantly, reaching $3674.27 per ounce in September 2025, with an annual increase of nearly 40%, outperforming most global asset classes, including major U.S. stock indices. This surge is primarily driven by a new generation of investors rather than traditional gold buyers [1][3]. Group 1: Price Performance - As of September 2025, gold prices have exceeded 30 nominal high records, surpassing the historical peak of $850 per ounce set in January 1980 (approximately $3590 adjusted for inflation) [3]. - The total value of gold in the London vaults has surpassed $1 trillion for the first time [3]. Group 2: Supporting Factors - Central banks globally have continued to increase their gold holdings, with purchases reaching 1045 tons in 2024, maintaining over 1000 tons for three consecutive years. The proportion of gold in central bank foreign exchange reserves has exceeded that of U.S. Treasuries for the first time since 1996 [4]. - Expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have risen, with historical data indicating that gold and silver typically see average increases of 6% and 4%, respectively, within 60 days following the start of rate cuts [4]. - Ongoing geopolitical conflicts and economic uncertainties have reinforced gold's status as a safe-haven asset [5]. Group 3: Constraining Factors - Demand for gold jewelry has weakened, with the second quarter of 2025 showing the lowest demand since the third quarter of 2020, as high prices have suppressed consumer willingness to purchase. Jewelry demand constitutes a significant portion of total demand, accounting for approximately 40% of gold and 34% of silver [6]. Group 4: Market Outlook - Current gold prices are at historical highs, and while there is a consensus for bullish expectations, caution regarding potential price corrections is advised [7]. - The strength of the U.S. dollar remains uncertain; if the U.S. economy remains robust, the dollar may strengthen, putting pressure on gold prices [8]. - Several institutions maintain an optimistic outlook for gold prices, with forecasts suggesting potential prices of $3700 by the end of 2025 and possibly exceeding $4000 by mid-2026 [8].