阿联酋非石油活动继续表现出强大韧性

Core Insights - The UAE's non-oil activities continue to show strong resilience, with stable overall production growth [1] - The PMI for the UAE rebounded to 53.3 in August after dropping to a four-year low of 52.9 in July, indicating improved economic conditions [1] - Fitch Ratings confirmed the UAE's sovereign credit rating at "AA-" with a stable outlook, reflecting the strength of sovereign assets and enhancing investor confidence [1] Economic Performance - Non-oil trade in the UAE saw a robust performance, with foreign trade growth of 24% in the first half of 2025, significantly outpacing global trade growth of 1.8% [1] - The tourism sector is identified as a key growth driver, with Dubai welcoming nearly 10 million visitors in the first six months of the year [1] - The performance aligns with the UAE's "D33" economic agenda, aimed at positioning Dubai as a leading global destination and contributing to fiscal revenue and overall macroeconomic stability [1] Global Oil Market Outlook - The global oil demand growth forecast for 2025 remains at approximately 130 million barrels per day, unchanged year-on-year [1] - Oil demand in OECD countries is expected to grow by about 0.1 million barrels per day by 2025, while non-OECD demand is projected to increase by approximately 1.2 million barrels per day [1] - Transportation fuels, including gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel, are expected to be the main drivers of demand growth over the next two years, followed by liquefied petroleum gas and naphtha used in the petrochemical industry [1]