Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-09-16 17:17Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing a significant upward trend, driven by expectations of a shift in Federal Reserve policy, increased demand for safe-haven assets, and supply-demand imbalances, with forecasts for gold prices potentially reaching $4,000 per ounce sooner than previously anticipated [1][2][3] Gold Market Analysis - As of September 16, COMEX gold futures reached a record high of $3,731.9 per ounce, with a cumulative increase of over 6% in September, surpassing the 5% increase in August [1] - Morgan Stanley has set a year-end target price for gold at $3,800 per ounce, emphasizing the strong inverse correlation between gold and the US dollar [2] - UBS predicts gold prices will rise to $3,700 per ounce by June 2026, with a possibility of reaching $4,000 per ounce amid geopolitical or economic risks [2] - JPMorgan has revised its gold price forecast to an average of $3,800 per ounce in Q4 2023, with expectations of surpassing $4,000 per ounce in Q1 2026, driven by increased investor demand [2] Silver Market Analysis - Silver prices are also on the rise, with COMEX silver futures increasing by 41% year-to-date, outperforming gold's 35% increase [4] - The Shanghai silver futures market has entered a new phase, surpassing 10,000 yuan per kilogram [4] - The silver market is more volatile due to its smaller size compared to gold, making it susceptible to rapid price changes [4][5] - Despite optimism for silver prices, JPMorgan expresses greater confidence in the gold market, citing silver's complex outlook and significant industrial demand that may be impacted by macroeconomic risks [5] Macro Economic Factors - The weakening US job market, with non-farm payrolls falling short of expectations and an unemployment rate reaching 4.3%, is contributing to heightened market volatility and increased demand for precious metals [5] - The potential erosion of the Federal Reserve's independence and rising US deficit rates are expected to further undermine the credibility of the US dollar and US Treasury securities, intensifying the global trend of "de-dollarization" [3]