More capital or a new HQ? Here are UBS's options in Swiss standoff

Core Insights - UBS Group AG is facing a significant challenge due to a $26 billion increase in capital requirements imposed by the Swiss government, prompting global investment banks to propose various transaction strategies to address this issue [2][5][6] Group 1: Potential Strategies - Options being considered range from a merger or acquisition with a non-Swiss bank to technical adjustments that could help UBS manage capital over the coming years [3][4] - UBS is currently not inclined towards drastic changes, preferring to engage in lobbying and public positioning as a bill progresses through the Swiss parliament [4][8] - The bank's chairman has criticized the new capital demands as "extreme," indicating that they could hinder UBS's competitiveness against global rivals [6][7] Group 2: Impact of Capital Requirements - The proposed capital requirements could lead to UBS's Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio rising to approximately 19% over the next decade, which is significantly higher than what peers operate with [10] - Higher capital requirements may enhance safety but could also reduce profitability, as they require the bank to account for risks in foreign subsidiaries against its parent bank's capital [9][10] Group 3: Business Adjustments - UBS may consider downsizing or divesting risky business units to improve compliance with the new capital rules, particularly focusing on its investment banking division [12][15] - The bank's core business in global wealth management holds about $166 billion in risk-weighted assets, managing over $4 trillion in client assets [12] - Specific riskier areas, such as lending to highly-indebted companies and prime brokerage, are potential targets for reduction [17] Group 4: Technical Solutions - UBS is exploring technical methods to optimize its balance sheet, including the use of Significant Risk Transfers to shift credit risk to outside investors [20][21] - The bank is also considering "upstreaming" excess capital from its foreign subsidiaries, with plans for approximately $5 billion in transfers over time [22][23] Group 5: Future Considerations - UBS executives are currently focused on maintaining performance and hope for favorable outcomes from Swiss parliamentarians regarding the capital requirements [37] - There is speculation about the potential for UBS to shift its headquarters to escape stringent Swiss regulations, although this option has become less likely in recent months [31][33] - The uncertainty surrounding regulatory changes has negatively impacted UBS's share price, even as the broader European banking sector has seen a 30% rally [30][37]