“北上广深”不香了？2025年仅增几十万人，这3座城市将成“新宠”？

Core Insights - The article discusses a significant demographic shift in China, where traditional first-tier cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen are losing their appeal, while emerging cities such as Hangzhou, Chengdu, and Hefei are experiencing rapid population growth [1][2] Group 1: Decline of First-Tier Cities - The net population growth in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen combined was only 563,000 in the first half of 2025, a nearly 40% decrease compared to the same period in 2020 [1][2] - High living costs are a major deterrent, with housing price-to-income ratios in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen at 23.5, 21.8, and 20.6 respectively, far exceeding the internationally accepted range of 8-10 [4] - The average commuting time for residents in first-tier cities is 76 minutes, which is 32 minutes longer than in second-tier cities, contributing to increased stress and reduced quality of life [5] Group 2: Factors Driving Migration to Emerging Cities - Many second and third-tier cities are implementing attractive talent policies, including housing subsidies and simplified residency processes, making them more appealing to young professionals [5][7] - In the first half of 2025, the cities with the highest net inflow of population were Hangzhou (245,000), Chengdu (228,000), and Hefei (186,000) [7] Group 3: Rise of Emerging Cities - Hangzhou is emerging as a leader in digital economy, with a core industry value added of 268 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, growing by 15.2% year-on-year [8] - Chengdu's housing price-to-income ratio is significantly lower at 12.3, and it added 12,000 new tech companies in the first half of 2025, indicating a thriving business environment [9] - Hefei is making strides in technology innovation, with high-tech industry output growing by 22.6% in the first half of 2025, and a contribution rate of over 65% to economic growth [10] Group 4: New Urban Selection Logic - The shift in population dynamics reflects a broader trend where young professionals are prioritizing lifestyle quality and personal fit over traditional notions of success tied to major cities [11][14] - The article emphasizes that the best city choice is one that aligns with individual career aspirations and lifestyle preferences, rather than simply following the crowd to first-tier cities [14]