Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-09-16 22:49Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices is primarily driven by rising expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with significant contributions from U.S. investors, while Asian investors have not shown similar enthusiasm [1][2]. Group 1: Reasons for Recent Gold Price Surge - The main driver for the recent increase in gold prices is the rise in expectations for interest rate cuts, leading to a decline in real interest rates. Gold prices rose from $3,315.7 per ounce on August 20 to $3,643.1 per ounce by September 12, marking a significant increase [2]. - Factors contributing to the heightened expectations for rate cuts include lower-than-expected inflation pressures in the U.S., weak employment data, and President Trump's interference with the Federal Reserve's independence [2]. Group 2: Asian Market Dynamics - The lack of significant price increases in the Asian market can be attributed to the strong performance of the A-share market, which has attracted investment funds away from gold. Additionally, the rapid appreciation of the Chinese yuan has also impacted domestic demand for gold [3]. - Since August 20, gold prices in the U.S. market have increased by 7.7%, driven mainly by U.S. investors, while Asian investors have reduced their holdings by 4.8 tons during the same period [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook for Gold Prices - The ability of gold prices to continue breaking new ground will depend on the Federal Reserve's potential for further rate cuts and the performance of the Chinese stock market. Current market expectations for three consecutive rate cuts by the Fed may already be priced in [3]. - The dynamics between central bank gold purchases, which are slow-moving and difficult to predict, and the ongoing bullish sentiment in the A-share market suggest that the "stock-gold seesaw" effect may continue [3].