潘向东：中美西班牙达成协议，资产怎么看？

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the market is reacting to the strong expectation of an imminent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which has driven gold prices to a historical high of $3690 per ounce, reflecting a "vote of confidence" in future value [1] - The recent weak U.S. non-farm payroll data and other economic indicators have led the market to almost certainty that the Federal Reserve will signal a dovish stance in its upcoming meeting, potentially announcing a 25 basis point rate cut [1] - There are concerns about the accumulation of risks as gold prices show signs of being overbought, indicating that any hawkish comments could lead to significant price corrections [1] Group 2 - A framework consensus has been reached between China and the U.S. in Spain regarding the resolution of TikTok-related issues and the reduction of investment barriers, although it is not a comprehensive trade agreement [2] - The choice of Spain as the meeting location signifies a positive attitude towards resolving issues within a multilateral framework, despite the underlying structural tensions in U.S.-China relations remaining unresolved [2][3] - The agreement is seen as a potential thaw in relations, but it may also represent a tactical pause in a longer-term strategic competition [3] Group 3 - The marginal improvement in the external environment provides a rare respite for the A-share market, with expectations of a shift towards looser global liquidity due to the Federal Reserve's anticipated rate cut [4] - Discussions about a potential style shift in the A-share market are gaining traction, focusing on whether funds will flow from crowded "dividend" sectors to more aggressive growth sectors as external risks diminish [5] - The market is questioning whether the upcoming focus will be on stable "high-dividend" value stocks or dynamic "new productivity" growth stocks, with the potential for a style shift being a key topic of interest [6]