政策利好来了，碳酸锂价格能否回升

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the new policy and increasing demand are driving the growth of the energy storage industry in China, with a target of 180GW of new energy storage capacity by 2027, leading to over 250 billion yuan in direct investment [1][2] - The National Energy Administration reported that by the end of 2024, the installed capacity of new energy storage projects in China will reach 73.76 million kilowatts, which is 20 times the capacity at the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan, and an increase of over 130% compared to the end of 2023 [2] - The release of the new policy is expected to enhance the demand for lithium carbonate, as the energy storage growth target raises market expectations for the lithium battery industry's overall demand space, indicating a more diversified consumption source for lithium carbonate [3] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that the actual demand boost for lithium carbonate from the new policy may be limited, as the current installed capacity is already significant, and the growth pressure for energy storage installations from 2026 to 2027 is not expected to be high [4] - The market is currently experiencing a stable price for lithium carbonate futures around 72,000 yuan per ton, influenced by a balance of market sentiment and fundamentals, with supply still tight despite increased production [5] - Future price trends for lithium carbonate are expected to remain in a range-bound state, supported by terminal demand, but there are concerns about whether demand can sustain its upward trajectory, which could pose a potential downside risk [6]