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甲醇市场“南北分化”!北方货源紧俏,南方港口库存却创新高
Qi Huo Ri Bao·2025-09-16 23:56

Core Viewpoint - The domestic methanol market is experiencing a significant divergence between the northern and southern regions, with the northern market facing tight supply and rising prices, while the southern market is burdened by high inventory levels and weak demand [1][2]. Group 1: Northern Market Dynamics - The northern methanol market is benefiting from three favorable factors: seasonal maintenance leading to reduced production rates, increased demand due to upcoming holidays, and higher external procurement by some methanol-to-olefins (MTO) facilities [1]. - As of September 12, the inventory of major methanol producers in Northwest China was approximately 200,000 tons, which is 100,000 to 150,000 tons lower than historical levels, supporting a strong price performance [1]. Group 2: Southern Market Challenges - In contrast, the southern coastal methanol market is facing a significant increase in port inventory, which reached 1,550,300 tons as of September 11, surpassing the previous high of 1,478,900 tons in 2019 [2]. - The surge in port inventory is attributed to a combination of increased imports and weak downstream demand, reflecting a broader trend of weak supply and demand in the industry [2][3]. Group 3: Factors Contributing to High Inventory - The high port inventory is primarily due to a "arrival surge" caused by delayed shipments from Iran, which were exacerbated by geopolitical tensions and subsequent price reductions to clear stock [3]. - Additionally, stable supply from Southeast Asia and a shift in Middle Eastern methanol flows to China due to sanctions on India have further increased inventory pressures [3][4]. Group 4: Demand Weakness - Weak demand from both overseas and domestic markets has compounded the inventory issues, with reduced operating rates in downstream industries such as acetic acid and MTBE, as well as low MTO production rates [4]. - The current market situation reflects a conflict between the weak reality of port inventories and the stronger future expectations, although the overall supply-demand balance remains stable [4]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Looking ahead, the market may see improvements starting in November when the "protect residential natural gas" policy is implemented, potentially reducing methanol production capacity by approximately 20 million tons per year [5]. - A seasonal inventory reduction is expected to begin in October, which could alleviate pressure on the port market and lead to potential price rebounds by the first or second quarter of the following year [5].