美联储降息在即，对A股、港股、人民币有这些影响

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to initiate a new round of interest rate cuts during its upcoming meeting, with a high probability of a 25 basis point cut, while the possibility of a 50 basis point cut remains low, amidst mixed opinions on the extent of the cut [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Expectations - The probability of a 25 basis point cut is at 95.9%, while a 50 basis point cut stands at 4.1% according to CME FedWatch [1]. - By October, the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point cut is projected to reach 73.8%, indicating strong market expectations for continued easing [1]. - The recent rise in unemployment to 4.3% and downward revisions in job growth forecasts suggest a weakening labor market, which may influence the Fed's decision [2]. Group 2: Economic Analysis - Analysts suggest that a 25 basis point cut would signal easing without inducing panic about a recession, while a 50 basis point cut could be interpreted as a reaction to economic fears [2][4]. - The current economic environment is characterized as "preventive rate cuts" rather than "rescue rate cuts," as there is no clear recession or severe external shocks [2]. Group 3: Global Market Impact - The anticipated Fed rate cuts are expected to influence global financial markets, with potential capital inflows into emerging markets as the dollar weakens and global liquidity improves [5][6]. - Historical data indicates that during previous easing cycles, gold prices tend to rise significantly, with an 83% success rate in the first 10 trading days post-cut [6]. Group 4: Chinese Market Implications - The Fed's rate cut may trigger a wave of rate cuts globally, including in China, where there is still some room for monetary easing [8]. - The Chinese bond market may attract foreign investment due to reduced pressure on the China-U.S. interest rate differential, particularly in government and policy bank bonds [9]. - The Chinese yuan is expected to remain stable, with limited risks of rapid appreciation or depreciation, supported by internal economic stability measures [10].