【宏观*芦哲】特朗普干预美联储独立性的三个途径

Macro - Trump's intervention in the independence of the Federal Reserve is primarily through three avenues: 1) Nominating a Federal Reserve Chair who aligns with his views, expected to be nominated in November this year and take office in May next year; 2) Adjusting the personnel structure of the Federal Reserve Board to exclude "outsiders" like Cook, while appointing "loyalists" like Milan to strengthen his influence; 3) Intervening in the appointment of regional Federal Reserve presidents, whose terms will expire at the end of February next year [1] - With the new Federal Reserve Chair's appointment, 4 out of 7 members of the Federal Reserve Board will be "loyalists," giving Trump greater influence, which implies: 1) On a macroeconomic level, the expected rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026 may exceed the current market pricing of three cuts, with policy rates potentially falling below the neutral level of 3%, leading to a shift from a soft landing to moderate expansion in the U.S. economic cycle; 2) On the asset class level, excessive rate cuts under political pressure may weaken dollar interest rate expectations and widen dollar credit risks, corresponding to declines in 2-year Treasury yields and the dollar index, while the decline in 10-year Treasury yields may be hindered by widening term premiums [1]