甲醇市场“南北分化” 北方货源紧俏，南方港口库存却创新高

Core Viewpoint - The domestic methanol market is experiencing a significant divergence between the northern and southern regions, with the northern market facing tight supply and rising prices, while the southern market is burdened by high inventory levels and weak demand [1][2]. Group 1: Northern Market Dynamics - The northern methanol market is benefiting from three key factors: seasonal maintenance leading to reduced production, increased demand due to upcoming holidays, and higher external procurement by some methanol-to-olefins (MTO) facilities [1][3]. - As of September 12, the inventory of major methanol producers in Northwest China was approximately 200,000 tons, which is 100,000 to 150,000 tons lower than historical levels, supporting a robust price performance [1][3]. Group 2: Southern Market Challenges - In contrast, the southern coastal methanol market is facing a significant inventory surge, with total port inventory reaching 1.5503 million tons as of September 11, surpassing the previous high of 1.4789 million tons in 2019 [2][3]. - The increase in port inventory is attributed to a combination of high import volumes and weak downstream demand, reflecting a broader trend of weak supply and demand in the industry [2][4]. Group 3: Factors Contributing to High Inventory - The surge in port inventory is primarily due to a "delivery wave" caused by delayed shipments from Iran, which were exacerbated by geopolitical tensions and subsequent price reductions to clear stock [3][4]. - Additionally, stable supply from Southeast Asia and a shift in Middle Eastern methanol flows to China due to sanctions on India have further intensified the inventory pressure at ports [3][4]. Group 4: Demand Weakness and Market Outlook - Weak demand from both overseas and domestic markets has compounded the inventory issues, with reduced operating rates in downstream industries and a sluggish oil market contributing to the high inventory levels [4][5]. - Despite the current high inventory situation, analysts believe that the market may see improvements starting in November when industrial gas usage is expected to decrease, potentially leading to a seasonal inventory reduction [5][6].