黄金今日行情走势要点分析（2025.9.17）

Core Viewpoint - The market anticipates a 25 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the upcoming meeting, influenced by external pressures and economic indicators [2][4]. Fundamental Analysis - Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations: Market participants are almost fully pricing in a 25 basis point cut at the Fed's meeting on September 17, with about 4% betting on a 50 basis point cut. President Trump has publicly pressured Fed Chair Powell for larger cuts, reinforcing dovish market expectations [2]. - Impact of Economic Data: Despite a 0.6% month-on-month increase in August retail sales (above the expected 0.2%), weak labor market conditions and inflationary pressures from tariffs continue to undermine the dollar's credibility. The 10-year Treasury yield has slightly decreased to 4.028%, reflecting investor concerns about future economic slowdown [4]. Technical Analysis - Daily Level: Gold has shown a significant upward trend after a period of consolidation, with key support levels at 3665 and 3635. The market is currently in a bullish phase, with the potential for further gains if it breaks above recent highs [7]. - Four-Hour Level: Gold is in the third wave of an upward structure, with critical resistance at 3703 and support at 3678. A breakout above 3703 would indicate continued bullish momentum, while a drop below 3678 could signal a corrective phase [9][10].