美联储降息在即，专家称可能成为市场转折点

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to initiate a new rate-cutting cycle during its upcoming meeting, with a high probability of a 25 basis point cut and a lower probability for a 50 basis point cut [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Expectations - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve is 95.9%, while the probability of a 50 basis point cut is only 4.1% [1] - By October, the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point cut is projected to reach 73.8%, indicating strong market expectations for continued monetary easing [1] Group 2: Global Impact and Market Reactions - The anticipated rate cuts by the Federal Reserve may trigger a wave of rate cuts from global central banks [1] - Although China's benchmark interest rate is already low, there remains some room for easing, such as lowering the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) and Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) rates, or through reserve requirement ratio cuts to release liquidity [1] - Continued monetary easing and maintaining low interest rates could boost the A-share market and potentially lead to a second wave of upward momentum in the market [1] - The Federal Reserve's rate cut may serve as a turning point for the market, supporting the expected "golden September and silver October" trend in the A-share market [1]